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Corbin Advisors Releases Q2’25 Inside The Buy-Side® Industrial Sentiment Survey®

via Business Wire

Industrials Anticipated to Capture Momentum in Multi-year Capex Cycle Aligned with Secular Trends, But Potential Dampening Effects of Tariffs on Demand Weighs Near Term

  • Both investor sentiment and perceived executive tone rebound from last quarter’s sharp pullback, with bullishness back near levels seen at the start of 2025
  • 45% expect companies to beat Q2’25 consensus, a meaningful increase QoQ, with heightened expectations for improving revenue with over half reporting evidence of pull-forward demand
  • Tariffs and Growth/Demand lead the list of topics to address on upcoming earnings calls, while focus on Margins and Pricing nearly doubles QoQ
  • While most investors anticipate companies will Maintain annual guides, expectations for Raises and Lowers both see upticks
  • Views toward 2025 Industrial organic growth stabilize, with just 7% expecting Lower growth YoY, compared with 39% prior; still, majority expect tariffs to have a net negative impact on financial performance for full-year 2025
  • Investors continue to prioritize Margins over Growth, 62% to 38%, down only slightly from last survey, which was the largest disparity since tracking began in Q4’23
  • Debt Paydown and Reinvestment remain the top preferred uses of cash, while sentiment warms for smaller-scale M&A

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Corbin Advisors, a strategic consultancy accelerating value realization globally, today released its quarterly Industrial Sentiment Survey®. The survey, part of Corbin Advisors’ Inside The Buy-Side® flagship research publication, was conducted from June 24th to July 17th, 2025, and is based on responses from 25 institutional investors and sell-side analysts globally who actively cover the Industrial Sector. Participating buy-side firms collectively manage ~$1.3 trillion in assets with ~$171 billion invested in Industrials.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250722681027/en/

Following last quarter’s survey, which found investors leaning more bearish amid heightened trade policy uncertainty, a trend that also prompted a shift toward margin preservation over growth, the Voice of Investor® in this survey reveals a rebound in sentiment with investor bullishness back near levels seen at the start of 2025. Indeed, 56% of investors characterize sentiment as Bullish or Neutral to Bullish, up from just 22% last quarter, while those in the Bearish or Neutral to Bearish camp have dropped below the 20% threshold from 44% QoQ. However, while expectations for a pick-up in Industrials has emerged, enthusiasm remains somewhat tempered by lingering tariff uncertainty and the potential dampening effects on demand in the second half of 2025.

“Following a period of tariff-induced volatility that whipsawed markets and shook investor sentiment, our Q2 Survey finds that bulls have regained their footing, but at somewhat tempered levels compared to the optimism seen heading into 2025," said Rebecca Corbin, Founder and CEO of Corbin Advisors. “Underlying commentary indicates investors are at a crossroads: while anticipation grows for an industrial pick-up supported by a pent-up multi-year capex cycle – and we are seeing green shoots - margin focus remains in favor amid a potential second half air pocket and continued uncertainties. We continue to believe we may be in for a choppy couple quarters, as tariff and derivative economic growth impacts along with OBBBA absorption wend their way through the system. Companies that are well positioned to take advantage of pockets of resilience and that are generating strong free cash flow to invest stand to capture both market share and investor mindshare. Executives can differentiate their company as an investment by leveraging the earnings call to address strategy progress, end-market positioning, and capital allocation pursuance.”

Regarding Q2’25, investors widely expect meet-or-beat prints: 45% anticipate results to come in Better Than consensus, up from just 7% last quarter, and an equal number expect In Line results. Across leading KPIs — Revenue, EPS, Operating Margins, and FCF — views on sequential performance see more optimism, but remain mixed. More, 46%, are betting that top lines will Improve, while views are split on EPS, with 41% each expecting bottom lines to Improve or Worsen. Expectations on Margins and FCF are muted. Investors largely expect companies to Maintain annual guides, though expectations for both Raises and Lowers see an uptick.

In terms of full-year sector growth relative to 2024, expectations show some modest improvement, with 50% expecting Stable 2025 industrial organic growth, up from just 15% last quarter. At the same time, just 7% expect Lower growth YoY, down from 39% observed in our prior survey. That said, the majority believe tariffs will be a net negative for full-year performances across growth, profitability, and capex. Amid evidence that tariff delays and timeline shifts have extended pull-forward volumes into June and July, the potential for a demand vacuum in the second half is a recurring theme in investor commentary. Notably, more, 62%, continue to prioritize margins over growth, down only slightly from 64% last quarter, which was the highest level since tracking began in December 2023.

“In Q2, there will probably be some pull-forward with people trying to get ahead of the tariffs. That will probably create air pockets in the second half of this year,” commented an analyst whose firm has over $2 billion invested across the Industrial sector.

Tariffs and Growth/Demand remain the leading topics to address on upcoming earnings calls, while focus on Margins and Pricing nearly doubles QoQ. Likewise, tariffs remain the top unaided concern despite pulling back QoQ, while apprehension over economic slowdown spikes to claim the number two spot.

Reflecting crosscurrents, capital preferences are split between Debt Paydown and Reinvestment as the top two preferred uses of cash, with each cited by 46%, though support for the former has pulled back from a record 69% observed last quarter. Meanwhile, interest in Share Buybacks rose to 38%, a survey record, up 15 points QoQ despite some concerns with stretched valuations. While overall interest in M&A as a capital priority remains low, support for bolt bolt-on acquisitions recovers, while outright opposition to large transformational deals ebbs to just 17% from 46% last quarter.

Regarding sub-sector views, Defense extends its lead as the most favored group, while Agriculture, Water, and Machinery also see notable upticks in bulls. Conversely, Resi- and Non-resi Construction see the largest influx of bears, followed by Paper & Packaging, while views toward Transportation and Autos remain deeply negative.

About Corbin Advisors

Since 2007, Corbin Advisors has tracked investor sentiment on a quarterly basis. Access Inside The Buy-Side® and other industry-leading research on real-time investor sentiment and IR best practices at CorbinAdvisors.com.

Corbin is a leading investor research and strategic communications advisory firm accelerating value realization globally. We engage deeply with our clients — companies ranging from pre-IPO to over $700 billion in market cap across all sectors globally — to increase equity market value. We deliver research-based insights and execution excellence through a dedicated team of capital markets experts with deep sector and situational experience, a best practice approach, and an outperformance mindset. We have a long track record of delivering successful client outcomes, most notably by rerating and compounding equity valuations through our Voice of Investor® research and counsel.

To learn more about us and our impact, visit CorbinAdvisors.com.

We continue to believe we may be in for a choppy couple quarters, as tariff and derivative economic growth impacts along with OBBBA absorption wend their way through the system.

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